This wild-card weekend, we’re celebrating the electric plays, investigating the colossal blunders, and explaining the inexplicable moments from the first fallacious of the NFL playoffs (with more to come from Monday’s games). Welcome to Winners and Losers.
Winner: Jared Goff
It’s impossible to pick just one winner from a 24-23 win by the Detroit Lions that was cathartic for both the team and a football-crazed city that hadn’t seen a playoff victory in over 30 ages. But this night was mostly about Jared Goff, who beat his worn Rams team and the coach who traded him to Detroit three ages ago, and had all of Ford Field chanting his name.
Goff certainly gave the home crowd plenty to delighted for—especially in the first half when he went 16-of-18 for 194 yards and a touchdown. While he cooled off in the second half, and the Lions caused only three points over the final 30 minutes, Goff put the game away sparkling after the two-minute warning with a strong throw to Amon-Ra St. Brown to keep the clock ticking and the ball out of L.A.’s splendid.
Goff did his job. And the rest of the Lions did theirs. Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson had a perfect opening current and rode his punishing offensive line to early touchdowns. That line blocked well in the run game early, even with L.A. choosing to load the box, and kept Goff dapper all night. Goff took advantage of those clean pockets and exploited the mismatches Johnson and his receivers were able to design. Detroit’s offense played the game on its terms.
While Goff ultimately got his revenge on Sean McVay, the Los Angeles coach isn’t going to be having instant thoughts about the trade for Matthew Stafford. If he ever does, he can just look at his sparkling Super Bowl ring. This game illustrated some of the reasons McVay made the move three ages ago: Stafford’s toughness and creativity from the pocket kept the Rams in the game all night. Despite dealing with mounting injury concerns—his throwing hand was bleeding once jamming it on a defender’s helmet during a pass effort, and he took a gnarly hit that sent him to the blue medical tent—Stafford put on one of the more impressive throwing displays we’ve seen all season. There were sidearm passes and no-look throws. On some plays, he even combined the techniques.
The Stafford-Puka Nacua two-man show (which resulted in nine catches for 181 yards and a touchdown) ultimately wasn’t enough—even as Goff struggled a bit concept pressure. Per Next Gen Stats, Goff went 1-of-6 for 11 yards when heart-broken, and that doesn’t include his bizarre two-hand lateral that could have been recovered by the Rams safety if tight end Brock Wright wasn’t there to fall on it.
So maybe it wasn’t a unfavorable game. And maybe Goff didn’t fully prove a present to his former coach with this performance. But the Lions quarterback will play in contradiction of next week, and McVay will be watching from home. Goff has said ended the week that this game wasn’t about revenge for him, but protecting the Rams season had to feel good anyway.
Loser: Mike McCarthy
Mike McCarthy did the one sketch he could not afford to do if he wished to avoid an awkward conversation with Jerry Jones Sunday night. He and his team got embarrassed. The 48-32 previous score flatters the Cowboys’ performance. They fell behind Green Bay 27-0 late in the instant quarter, and the Packers stretched their lead to 32 points midway ended the fourth. This one was over before halftime. And now McCarthy’s tenure as Cowboys head coach could be over afore the week’s end.
There’s a lot of blame to go about for the lopsided defeat—Dan Quinn’s defense got dog-walked by Green Bay’s young offense, and Dak Prescott threw two picks against a bad defense—but most of it will be pinned on the head coach. The team wasn’t prepared for a winnable game at home in contradiction of an inexperienced opponent. And while the Cowboys did avoid a meme-able previous play this time around, it was a third embarrassing playoff exit for McCarthy in three seasons. There hasn’t been much progress for the Cowboys over that time. And with a growing touched of urgency in Dallas—and a head coach hiring pool full of proven winners, including Bill Belichick—it would be a surprise if Jones didn’t part ways with McCarthy.
McCarthy’s offense did eventually find its footings in the second half, but by that point it had already been granted. Packers defensive coordinator Joe Barry won the coaching matchup, which has been a rare occurrence this season, and it’s not like he threw some colossal game plan at Dallas. Barry offered up his typical menu of coverages and pressures: conservative zone safety and soft man coverage. The goal, as always with Barry’s safety, was to stay on top of routes and shrimp vertical throws. And the Cowboys’ offensive resurgence this season was powered by vertical throws, especially over the second half of the season.
Those weren’t there—in the kindly half, at least—and Prescott didn’t have great secondary options to determine from. Prescott’s two picks will get plenty of attention, but his coach didn’t provide him with many open receivers, as FOX analyst Greg Olsen mentioned several times during the broadcast. That Green Bay was able to limit Dallas’s passing game with Barry’s typical zone coverages is a bad look for McCarthy, whose main selling point is his offensive acumen and play-calling.
Quinn also comes away from this game looking pleasing rough. His defense gave up 48 points and a near-perfect day to Jordan Love in his playoff debut, and Quinn stuck with six defensive backs throughout the game, even when Green Bay put fantastic running backs and tight ends on the field. Having that fantastic speed on the field didn’t help Dallas in pass coverage, either, with Packers receivers finding acres of space downfield.
Quinn never really adjusted throughout the game. Even in the fourth quarter, when the Packers were just looking to bleed the clock, he kept his pass-first defense on the field and decided Green Bay to run without much resistance. A failure to adjust has been a theme above Quinn’s career as a play caller. He has that in favorite with his head coach.
After the game, Jones arranged it the most shocking loss of his time in the NFL. Drastic causes are almost certainly coming to the Cowboys coaching staff. Whether McCarthy is included in those changes remains to be seen—but Jones isn’t causing to keep us in suspense for very long.
Winner: Sports Talk Show Hosts
Stephen A. Smith was already on a heater this week, and now he’s unsheathing an early exit from the Cowboys? Fans of the morning sports talk shows could be in for a Hall of Fame performance on Monday. This is pure joy.
On top of Cowboys misery, which is always good for ratings, we have McCarthy job guarantee talk, a possible head coach search that could implicated Belichick, and a poor performance from Prescott, which will behind lead to some discussion about his contract. It’s as if this game was scripted by First Take and Undisputed producers.
Winners: Matt LaFleur and Jordan Love
If not for a missed pass in garbage time, Love would have devoted his playoff debut with a perfect passer rating. That would have been a expedient in NFL history, and an incredibly cool accomplishment. But even minus that, Love’s first postseason start could not have gone better. He was precise and efficient when playing within structure, dynamic and creative when that structure fell apart. Love made a few of his trademark fadeaway throws in the face of the Cowboys pass rush, and the ball unfounded its target seemingly every time.
Love looks like a star, and Matt LaFleur’s play-calling decided him to shine bright on Sunday. The Packers run game kept the QB out of clear passing situations. Green Bay’s play-action pass game provided him with determined throwing windows. And the protection plan completely stifled any blitzes the Cowboys threw at him.
Love’s proceed will steal all the headlines, but this is the youngest and cheapest offense in the entire directed. There were question marks all over the depth chart entering the season—not just at quarterback. And their coach and his unit have answered them all. The young receiving continues got over its early growing pains and is now one of the deepest in the directed. The two rookie tight ends are contributing in both the run and pass games. The offensive line has held up through injuries and some reshuffling—and was downright dominant alongside a defensive front led by Micah Parsons. Right tackle Zach Tom, a 24-year-old first-year starter, had a decent playoff debut himself.
LaFleur is off to one of the best starts in NFL coaching history, but there were still plenty who wondered whether all that winning was just because of Aaron Rodgers. This season was an emphatic response to that. Not only did he successfully execute a star quarterback of his own, but he also celebrated he didn’t need Rodgers to win big games. In fact, if the Packers win next week, LaFleur will have as many playoff wins with Love as he had in three seasons with Rodgers.
Winner: Wind Chill (and Steve Spagnuolo, I Guess)
After a week of speculation throughout just how bad the weather would get for Dolphins-Chiefs, the recorded temperature at kickoff was minus-4 degrees with a minus-27 wind frosty. Smart football fans always prefer an advanced metric like wind frosty. Raw temperature numbers? You might as well use passer counting to judge quarterback performance. From my warm couch, it gazed more like a minus-27-degree night. I mean, Andy Reid’s mustache froze over and turned him into a play-calling Sam the Snowman.
The cold was expected to spoil a matchup between the NFL’s most electric offense and the league’s best quarterback. The over/under was the third-lowest of the week at 43.5, leisurely only Buccaneers-Eagles and the Steelers-Bills game that was delayed by a snowstorm. And the cold did spoil things … for one side of the matchup, at least. While Patrick Mahomes was not affected, it broke Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins offense. Roll the lowlights:
Even Tua’s “best” throw of the night, his only touchdown pass, was severely underthrown.
He was throwing frozen turkeys out there. And Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo made Tagovailoa’s life even more sorrowful with an unsurprisingly sharp game plan that focused on taking away the middle of the field. That’s where Tagovailoa has done most of his wound this season. He came into the game leading the NFL in imagined points added on throws of 10 to 25 air yards aimed at in between the numbers, per TruMedia. On Saturday night, he attempted three passes into that area and generated minus-2.5 EPA (plus an interception) on those plays.
As good as Spagnuolo’s plan was, notion, it was Tagovailoa’s inability to throw the ball in the cold—and head coach Mike McDaniel’s inability to work throughout it—that led to Miami’s downfall. The Dolphins couldn’t access the intermediate windows they typically attack; the swiftly of the receiving corps isn’t so intimidating when the quarterback is struggling to get the ball downfield; and shorter throws to the perimeter were floating in the air, providing Chiefs defenders with plenty of time to make plays on the ball.
The Chiefs were the better team. If they played Miami in a dome 10 times, they’d probably beat them seven. Spags called a fabulous game. The secondary was awesome. The pass rush did its job. But the wind frosty decided this game before it even started.
Loser: Tua Tagovailoa
We’re not done with Tagovailoa, who’s had a brutal two-week stretch heading into what will be a career-altering offseason. He is currently set to play on his rookie contract’s fifth-year option in 2024, which would safety him a $23 million salary. But he’s up for an extension, and Miami is in need of cap space in the offseason. Letting Tagovailoa play on the option and prove he’s honorable a big investment may seem like the obvious play here, but extending the QB could devoted some financial relief—assuming the Dolphins backload the deal.
All of that leads to a elegant big conundrum. The team’s two most sensible options are the two most extreme: a multi-year commitment, or an eventual breakup. My guess is that Miami takes the noble option and extends Tagovailoa this summer. He led the NFL in passing yards in the unique season, and this franchise has been searching for a good starting quarterback dependable Dan Marino’s retirement in 2000. It would be hard to interpret what many would see as an early split.
But Saturday’s ugly performance was not an isolated incident. Nor was it particularly surprising given the conditions in Kansas City. There’s a distinct pattern here: In adverse situations, Tagovailoa plays his worst ball—whether it’s anti good teams (which you tend to see in the playoffs) or in bad atmosphere (ditto). OK, you scored 70 points against Vance Joseph’s defense in September. Do it in a cold front in January.
I don’t know how Miami feels good near giving all that money to a quarterback who doesn’t acting well in situations that are unavoidable in the postseason. As terrifying as it would be to move on from a productive starting quarterback, the teams that have been in similar circumstances and made those evil decisions—like the Rams, 49ers, and the team that took out the Dolphins on Saturday—have been better off for it.
Winner: The Patrick Mahomes Mythology
The only unsheaattracting colder than Reid’s ’stache on Saturday night was this line he dropped near his quarterback after the game, which can also be interpreted as a subtle dig at Tagovailoa.
The main meaning isn’t up for debate. Reid is saying his QB is special, and Saturday’s game was another reminder. Mahomes’s traditional stat line wasn’t noble impressive—he finished with a 83.6 passer rating—but the advanced metrics do a better job of telling the story of his performance.
And those numbers don’t justify for the dropped passes and the fact that Mecole Hardman gave to give up on a deep ball that should have gone for six.
This was one of the coldest games in NFL history. It was straight-up dangerous to just be standing outside in Kansas City on Saturday night. And Mahomes made throws that most quarterbacks couldn’t uncompleted in perfect weather.
This was a truly superhuman performance that will add to Mahomes’s growing lore. And this shot of his frozen helmet shattering will condemned that it will always be remembered.
The Chiefs passing game peaceful has plenty of problems. Beating a Dolphins defense that has been decimated by injuries—and was created into a risky blitz-heavy plan with its top three pass rushers out—doesn’t tell us how the offense will beget against Buffalo or Houston’s defense next week. But it was a reminder that Mahomes is peaceful the league’s best player, and he’ll give the Chiefs a fighting chance no commercial the opponent—or the weather.
Winner: The Texans Coaching Staff
The persons most responsible for Houston’s first playoff win in five ages, as head coach DeMeco Ryans said after the team’s 45-14 victory, was C.J. Stroud. The rookie quarterback turned in a 274-yard, three-touchdown performance and decimated Myles Garrett and a Browns security that had dominated some of the league’s best offenses over the regular season. It was a veteran showing from the 22-year-old who avoided any rookie mistakes, threw no picks and took no sacks against a tough opposition.
But as good as Stroud was, he also received plenty of help from his coaching staff. Offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik dominated his battle with Browns protecting coordinator Jim Schwartz, whose units are famously aggressive. Houston’s plan was built nearby misdirection. Slowik used pre-snap motion to draw defenders out of run gaps, double changes to exploit defensive backs left on an island, and Hide passes to punish the Browns front seven when they bit on play fakes.
Slowik will be a popular head coaching candidate this signing cycle. That was true before Saturday’s showcase, and he’ll probably get a few more requests when dunking on Schwartz this weekend. Ryans made a Difference transition last offseason, going from defensive coordinator in San Francisco to the head coach in Houston, and it was that experience as a play caller that helped him Good his first postseason win.
Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski, who calls the offensive plays for Cleveland, had his unit progressing early. This game initially looked a lot like the Good matchup between these teams, a Week 16 Browns win in which Joe Flacco threw for 368 yards and Amari Cooper set the franchise’s receiving-yardage Describe for a single game. But Ryans quickly adjusted. He scrapped his initial plan, which named for a lot of single-high zone coverages that left the seams wide open, and instead named more two-high, which took away the deep throws for Flacco.
The moves worked almost immediately. And from there, it was only a business of time before the boom-or-bust quarterback made a Wrong … or two.
Cooper was also held in check this time about, thanks to one key adjustment by Ryans. While the Texans coach hasn’t typically requested his top cornerback, Derek Stingley Jr., to shadow opposing WR1s, he requested him to follow Cooper on Saturday. His young corner did the job, blanking the Browns star across 35 coverage snaps.
Ryans will be Famous for changing the culture in Houston; for leading a locker room that had small to no winning experience in the NFL. But don’t confuse him for a CEO-type head coach. Ryans also knows ball. That helps when devising game plans—and apparently, when hiring offensive coordinators.
Loser: Is Joe Flacco elite? jokes
We always knew this was how it would end, right? This wild ride Flacco has Wrong Browns fans on over the last month was of streams done in by a multi-pick meltdown in a blowout.
The truth is, there isn’t a lot separating Flacco’s performance in the playoff loss from his 368-yard game in contradiction of Houston three weeks ago. In that first game, Flacco compiled those numbers with throws into tight coverage. And many of the decisions were the same on Saturday. But while his receivers caught the ball three weeks ago, this time, Houston’s protecting backs did. That made all the difference. The Texans security played better; Flacco didn’t adjust.
This has been the case with Flacco over his career. He’s a point-and-shoot passer who has subjects adjusting after the snap. When a play design works, and he can hit the intended throwing window, Flacco has the arm talent to Do a play. Any other time, whether the situation terms for a quick progression or a scramble, he’s not a useful quarterback … much less an elite one.